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NBA Draft 2013: Ben McLemore and Ray Allen Statistical Comparison

February 23, 2013

No two college experiences are alike but I went back to Ray Allen’s University of Connecticut numbers to check if I can find similarities.

McLemore’s Freshman Year versus Allen’s Freshman Year

This comparison is not apples to apples. McLemore is a redshirt freshman while Allen was a true freshman.  McLemore had more practice time beginning the second semester of his redshirt year. Hence, we should assume that McLemore’s numbers should be better.

However, the table below actually shows the Allen was a more productive player during his limited playing time. It should be noted that Ray Allen only played 21.6 minutes a game in comparison to McLemore’s 32.2 minutes through 26 games.  Below are the figures after averaging out Allen’s numbers as if he played the same number of minutes per game as McLemore.  We learn that Allen likes to shoot more and therefore scores more.  From an efficiency standpoint, McLemore is a little bit more efficiency shooting a slightly better 3-point percentage and a significantly better free throw shooter as a freshman.

Category

McLemore

Allen

Difference

Points

 16.3

 18.8

 (2.5)

Rebounds

 5.5

 6.9

 (1.4)

Assists

 1.9

 2.4

 (0.5)

Minutes

 32.2

 32.2

 –

Turnovers

 2.1

 2.1

 0.0

FG%

50%

51%

-1%

FT%

87%

79%

8%

3PT%

43%

40%

3%

FGA

 11.0

 13.6

 (2.6)

FTA

 3.9

 4.5

 (0.6)

3PTA

 4.5

 3.6

 0.9

 

McLemore’s Freshman Year versus Allen’s Sophomore Year

This comparison is not apples to apples either.  Allen had 1 full year of game experience.  Hence, we should assume that Ray Allen’s numbers should be better.

The table below supports Allen as the more productive player again after adjusting Allen’s averages as if he played the exact amount of minutes McLemore.  You can see that Allen is the better statistically as he shoots more.  It is interesting to note that Allen’s efficiency doesn’t suffer with volume in comparison to McLemore.  It’s only Allen’s free throw shooting that is oddly low.

Category

McLemore

Allen

Difference

Points

 16.3

 20.7

 (4.4)

Rebounds

 5.5

 6.7

 (1.2)

Assists

 1.9

 2.3

 (0.4)

Minutes

 32.2

 32.2

 –

Turnovers

 2.1

 2.0

 0.1

FG%

50%

49%

1%

FT%

87%

73%

14%

3PT%

43%

45%

-2%

FGA

 11.0

 16.0

 (5.0)

FTA

 3.9

 3.3

 0.6

3PTA

 4.5

 5.9

 (1.4)

 

Comparing College Ray to NBA Ray

Another thing to consider is looking back at Ray Allen’s college career and how that has translated to the NBA.

The table below prorates Allen’s college numbers as if he played the same number of minutes in the NBA.  The numbers below indicate that Allen wasn’t as productive as he was in the NBA.  It makes a lot of sense given further three-point lines and significantly better defense.  The decrease is likely to be common for shooting guards where their shooting percentages, points per minute, and shot attempts fall.  A significant decrease in rebounds should be common as well.

Category

College

NBA

Difference

Points

 24.2

 19.6

 (4.6)

Rebounds

 7.6

 4.2

 (3.4)

Assists

 3.1

 3.5

 0.4

Minutes

 36.4

 36.4

 –

Turnovers

 2.4

 2.2

 (0.2)

FG%

49%

45%

-4%

FT%

78%

89%

11%

3PT%

45%

40%

-5%

FGA

 18.3

 15.2

 (3.1)

FTA

 4.5

 4.0

 (0.5)

3PTA

 6.6

 5.8

 (0.8)

What we’ve learned from the numbers, specifically the differences between the two:

  • This might be a function of the system or an innate preference but it appears that Allen likes to shoot more
  • Ray Allen is the better rebounder
  • Ray Allen is more of a playmaker with half an assist better than McLemore.  This is significant considering that they have almost identical number of turnovers
  • McLemore appears to be the better free throw shooter at this point.  This is shocking since Allen goes on to become one of the free throw shooters of all-time

What we’ve learned about McLemore

  • He definitely is a three-point shooter stylistically. 41% of his field goal attempts are three pointers.  This figure is close to Ray Allen and Reggie Miller’s NBA career ratios of 38% and 37% respectively.
  • He is not quite as good as Ray Allen.  As college Ray versus NBA Ray shows, his rebounding, productivity and shooting percentage will fall in the NBA.
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