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Austin Rivers: 2012 NBA Draft Scouting Report

May 1, 2012

Austin Rivers

Duke
6-4 shooting guard
200 pounds

NBA Projections as of April 30, 2012

NBADraft.net – 13th overall
Draftxpress.com – 16th overall
ESPN’s Chad Ford – 14th overall

FromCollegetoPros.com Prediction as of May 1, 2012

I predict that Austin Rivers’ career will be a No. 2 scorer in a decent to average team or a No.1 scorer in a bad team.  When he is a no. 2 scoring option, he will average about 16 to 18 points.  When he is the no.1 scoring option, he will average about 20 to 22 points.  Despite this scoring ability, I predict that Rivers will be one of those inefficient guards.  His big weakness is his inability to make his teammates around him better despite having the opportunity to do so.

Here is a short summary on why I made this prediction.  See Scouting Criteria page for my definitions and examples of each category.

Aggressiveness – High
Ability to Create Shots – High for his own shot, low in creating shots for others
Performance Against Top Players and Teams – Moderate
Mental Make-up – Moderate, killer instinct but a bit selfish

Aggression       

Score: High

From watching game tape, Rivers is a very aggressive player in constant attack mode.  His shot selection needs work but expect that to get better as he matures as a basketball player.  Compared to the other top rated shooting guards in this draft, he is among the most aggressive with Dion Waiters.  He gets to the line at a high rate.  His turnovers are high which further support his aggressiveness.

Player Avg FGA Avg FTA AST TO
Dion Waiters 12.0 4.0 3.1 1.6
Brad Beal 9.3 4.1 1.9 1.8
Jeremy Lamb 10.8 2.9 1.4 1.6
Austin Rivers 10.7 4.9 1.9 2.1

 

Performance against the best teams and players

Score: Moderate

Rivers doesn’t necessarily play better against ranked opponents.  He is just more aggressive.  As you can see on the table below, Rivers is more aggressive in about the same number of minutes.  Against ranked opponents, Rivers scored more points by taking more shots.  He didn’t necessarily play more efficiently as his shooting percentage decreased slightly.

Games MIN PPG AST
Against Ranked Opponent 8 33.4 16.8 2.0
All Other Games 26 33.7 15.1 2.1

More Stats

TO FG ATT FG PCT FT ATT
Against Ranked Opponent 2.1 13.5 42.6% 5.3
All Other Games 2.4 11.3 43.5% 5.5

Ability to Create Shots

Score: High for ability to get to the basket, low for ability to create shots for teammates

Positives:

  • Gets to the basket often
  • Excellent first step to get by the defender
  • Draws a lot of fouls against opposing defender
  • Excellent ball handling that helps him get by his defender
  • Has a floater in his arsenal

Negatives:

  • Does not look to create shot for others. When he attacks he pretty much looks to just score
  • Lack of elevation in finishing around the basket

Mental Make-up

Score: Moderate

By looking at his game, Austin Rivers appears to have a killer instinct and a competitor.  Watching game tape as well, Rivers does not really pass the ball. He pretty much just shoots and shows the inability to make players around him better.

Photo Credits:
http://collegiatestandard.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Austin-Rivers-Leaves-Duke-For-The-NBA.jpg
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From → 2012 NBA Draft

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